From Certainty to Sensemaking: Why Modern Leadership Must Embrace Uncertainty
“Uncertainty is an uncomfortable position. But certainty is an absurd one.” — Voltaire
In today’s volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous (VUCA) world, leaders who cling to the illusion of certainty risk becoming irrelevant. Businesses are operating in environments where reality is no longer fixed — it is fluid, interconnected, and constantly reshaped by human interaction.
Why Certainty No Longer Works
Research shows that:
- Reality is socially constructed: According to the theory of the Social Construction of Reality, our understanding of the world is co-created through communication, relationships and shared meaning.
- Ambiguity shapes outcomes: In organizational change, success depends heavily on how individuals and teams interpret — not avoid — uncertainty.
- Sensemaking is a core leadership competency: Despite its importance, only 4% of executives identify sensemaking as a key leadership attribute, even though it predicts adaptability and long-term success.
The Leadership Shift We Need
If reality is co-constructed and sensemaking is fundamental, then effective modern leadership is not about providing fixed answers. It is about:
- Creating space for interpretation, dialogue and reflection
- Facilitating shared understanding in dynamic environments
- Navigating complexity through curiosity, collaboration and adaptability
Leaders who thrive today are those who embrace uncertainty and use it as a catalyst for innovation and connection.
Where Coaching Becomes Transformational
In a coaching relationship:
- The coach and coachee become co-architects of meaning
- Uncertainty is explored rather than avoided
- The process prioritises adaptive action over rigid strategies
- What matters is continuously re-evaluated as contexts shift
Coaching becomes a space where new interpretations — and therefore new realities — can emerge.
A Question for Leaders and Teams
Are you treating uncertainty as something to eliminate?
Or are you using it as a powerful starting point for new insights, new behaviours and new ways of working?
Are you encouraging shared sensemaking — or still striving for the illusion of certainty?
The Future of Leadership Is Co-Constructed
It’s time to move beyond the absurdity of certainty.
The leaders who will define the next decade are those who cultivate:
- Agility
- Collective intelligence
- Meaningful dialogue
- Shared interpretation
- A willingness to rethink and re-imagine
Because in a world where reality is co-constructed, the greatest advantage is not having the answers — but knowing how to build them together.
